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Talking the Tropics With Mike: T.D. #28 becomes tropical storm Zeta over the NW Caribbean

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The Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic will remain the areas to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks (climatologically favored too).

*** Everyone along the Gulf Coast between Texas & Florida should stay up to date on the latest forecasts as “Zeta” moves over the Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming week.....

Tracking:

(1) low pressure over the Central Atlantic evolved from an upper low, became t.d. #27 Mon. morning & then to tropical storm Epsilon within a few hours - the fastest to the 27th storm breaking the record set in - of course - 2005.... & became a hurricane Tue. strengthening into a Cat. 3 Wed. before leveling off again as a Cat. 2 & then steady state as a Cat. 1. While the core of the hurricane missed Bermuda to the east Thu., strong winds & rough seas/surf will only slowly diminish over the next few days. Easterly swells will enhance rough surf & the rip current risk for the Bahamas, Florida & much of the U.S. east coast over the next few days. Epsilon is expected to become extra-tropical by Sunday night but will be a large, intense cyclone over the N. Atlantic.

(2) An inverted surface trough (“band” of lower pressures creating convergence) continues just east of Fl. through the early part of the week & is producing numerous showers & t’storms in a linear band. These features can sometimes lead to low pressure then tropical development, especially late in the season. Weak low pressure may eventually evolve over the Bahamas or between the Bahamas & Florida. No significant development is expected as any low that might develop moves northeast over the Atlantic over the next few days.

Of much greater concern.... Low pressure over the NW Caribbean near & south of the Cayman Islands was upgraded to tropical depression #28 Sat. afternoon then to tropical storm Zeta early Sunday - the fastest to the 27th tropical cyclone easily breaking the record of Nov. 29, 2005 & one away from tying the all-time Atlantic record for the most storms in a season. Forecast models seem to be finally(!) catching on to this development but continue with rather large swings in location & intensity. Zeta has seemingly moved south, but that’s most likely tied to the center “jumping around” as convection fires & the system organizes. As an upper level ridge builds across/near Fl./the Eastern Gulf - the Fl. peninsula “protector” this season - Zeta should be steered more west then northwest through early week. It’s worth noting that most models this season have initially been to far east with the ultimate outcome (track).

It is clear that overall conditions - sea surface temps., deep oceanic heat content & low shear - are just about ideal through Monday, & it’s possible there could be fairly fast if not rapid intensification for a time. Conditions are, however, quite the opposite across the Northern Gulf of Mexico which should cause weakening upon approach to a mid week landfall along the Gulf Coast.

Water vapor imagery below shows a vast area of dry mid & upper level air over virtually all of the Gulf of Mexico. There should be some moistening in the days ahead but Zeta will still have to battle this dry air once the storm enters the Gulf (Mon. night/Tue.).

Models:

The European is the farthest west & slowest (true all season) - well west of New Orleans but is now much faster but still west - near Cameron(!), the 2020 “go to” place for tropical systems - late Wed./Wed. night... the GFS model is faster & the farthest east - near Mobile/Pascagoula Wed. afternoon... the UKMET is now closest to the European - both location & timing. None of the models are particularly strong at landfall owing to the increasing shear & drier air + a little lower sea surface temps. (but still 80F +). Of note, however, upper level “ventilation” increases thanks to an approaching strong upper level trough that will help steer Zeta more north then northeast while accelerating by midweek. Overall... the long term intensity forecast is highly (more so than usual) uncertain. I would not be surprised if the system “goes hurricane” rather quickly then levels off &/or weakens while moving north/northeast over the Central/Northern Gulf. There may be some land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula by Mon. night that would cause at least some disruption in intensity.

Summary:

In any case, it looks like a landfalling tropical cyclone (probably high end tropical storm but possibly a low end hurricane) anywhere between the upper Texas coast & the Fl. Panhandle midweek centered on the area from Cameron to Mobile late Wed./Wed. night. First there very well could be a landfall near Cancun late Mon./Mon. night over the NE Yucatan Peninsula (another tropical system “magnet” this season) possibly as a hurricane.

“Extra spaghetti":

October tropical cyclone origin points are clustered over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet. "Eta” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: