Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
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Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th. The peak of the season is September 10th.
The average date of the sixth named storm of the season is August 29th... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11 (none this season so far).
A Storm Surge WARNING: High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana...
A Hurricane WATCH: High Island, Texas to the Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana...
A Tropical Storm WARNING: Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
The area of low pressure - ‘97-L’ - ‘tropical depression #5’ has developed concentrated t’storms over the far northern Gulf south of the Louisiana coast & was upgraded to “Edouard” Mon. evening. The movement is pretty straight forward as an upper level ridge remains firmly entrenched oriented NW/SE from the Central to Southeast U.S. steering Edouard underneath to the west/northwest reaching the upper Texas coast late Tue. Heavy rain & flooding will be the primary threat along with some strong winds- especially to the east of the center in addition to some storm surge. Isolated tornadoes will likely occur too.
As the NHC points out, small systems such as this one can have big/sudden swings in strength. Shear is quite low & the water is plenty warm to support a stronger system before landfall later Tuesday.
Rainfall forecast for areas along the path of Edouard:
The strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Monday & is moving steadily, rather rapidly west/northwest was upgraded to tropical storm “Dolly” Thu. morning, the 4th tropical cyclone of the Atlantic season... then - just 24 hours later Fri. morning - was downgraded back to a tropical wave as buoy info. near the “center” did not indicated a closed circulation. A weaker, more shallow system is being steered more west/northwest by the prevailing easterlies. Dolly is dealing with nearby dry mid & upper level air & strong shear & conditions won’t change much anytime soon.
It appears the combination of unrelenting shear + interaction with the land of the Greater Antilles has finally truly taken a toll on Dolly’s remnants. Thunderstorms weakened a great deal Sunday night but may still pop from time to time bringing some heavy rain & gusty winds to Hispaniola, Cuba & the Bahamas.
And there is also a good deal of strong but disorganized convection east of Florida north & northeast of the Bahamas associated with a trough of low pressure. There’s no indication of low pressure at the surface, but if this t’storm activity maintains itself, it’s an area to monitor in addition to the possibility that Dolly’s wave could move into the region. This is an area to keep an eye on.
Current wind shear:
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
August Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Fay” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will most likely be the generally more active area in ‘26 due to the anticipated El Nino.
“Karina”:
“Lowell” - could bring some rough seas & surf to some of the Hawaiian Islands next weekend (Sept. 4 - 7) but a direct hit on the islands looks unlikely right now despite a rather sharp turn north/northwest in the long range:
Central Pacific:
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Etau”:
Cox Media Group
