Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barbara continues to weaken

July 5, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The average date for the first storm of the Atlantic season is July 9th with typical tracks into the Gulf of Mexico or Western Atlantic.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet while the East Pacific continues to be the active area for now as Barbara became a "major" hurricane Tue... has peaked... & will now quickly wind down. Another disturbance well to the southeast of Barbara will likely develop over the weekend.

A look at the velocity potential anomalies does show "upward motion" (green lines) over the Central/Eastern Pacific which has likely aided the development of Alvin last week & now Barbara. This upward motion will likely "ooze" into the Atlantic Basin by mid July & could spark the first development of the Atlantic season (other than brief Andrea in May) by mid month or so. There is not anything to really "hang your hat on" for the moment though some long range forecast models have occasionally - yet inconsistently - jumped on some tropical development anywhere from the W. Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico. Something to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:

There is a disturbance over the far Eastern moving into the Central Atlantic, but it's early in the season for development so deep over the tropics, & the convection has weakened in association with the wave.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the E. Pacific.... Barbara is quickly weakening. The weaker, more shallow version will turn more westward & accelerate in the longer term & will be no significant threat to the Hawaiian Islands upon approach early next week. A large area of "disturbed" weather is far to the southeast of Barbara & has the potential to develop over the next several days while moving west/northwest & staying away from any land areas.