"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Franklin moving over the Yucatan Peninsula - Aug. 8th

Aug. 8, 2017 — Tropical storm "Franklin" moved over the Yucatan Peninsula early Tue. & will continue mostly westward moving back over water - the Bay of Campeche - by Tue. night......

Tropical storm "Franklin"  looks like it will stay organized enough to allow for some rather rapid reintensification once back over the far SW Gulf of Mexico. The shear will increase later Wed. upon approach to Mexico which should at least level out the intensification.  The 2nd landfall looks to be Wed. night/early Thu. on the coast of Mexico well south of Texas.

There will be NO impacts for Jacksonville or any of Florida.... or any of the U.S. for that matter.

Belize City N.W.S. Doppler radar imagery:

Meanwhile... an active tropical wave ('99-L') is struggling over the Central Atlantic.  Global forecast models vary on whether this wave will develop while turning northwest then north by the weekend/early next week while over the SW Atlantic.

A weaker system should go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds. We still need to keep a wary eye on the longer term when conditions might be more favorable for stronger development (late this week & especially into the weekend).  The tropical disturbance should be east of Fl. by Sunday/Mon.

Other tropical waves are now marching west from Africa as we enter the 6-8 week period when deep Cape (Cabo) Verde tropical systems become more common.

SE U.S.:


Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the E. Atlantic:


Water vapor imagery (strong nontropical upper low north of Puerto Rico):

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear):

The W. Pacific......  "Noru" is weakening over Japan after a Cat. 1 landfall Sunday. The typhoon was the 2nd longest lasting typhoon in the NW Pacific at more than 2 weeks.


Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast Friday.  He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated.  If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.   NOAA will issue their updated seasonal forecast Wed.


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