Talking the Tropics With Mike: Kirk re-forms over the Central Atlantic east of the Caribbean

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Kirk's has - as expected - regained tropical storm status .  This fast moving storm should continue to strengthen into Thu. before encountering high shear over the Caribbean.  The shear should protect the Lesser Antilles from a major storm as it looks right now, but the shear may not pick up quickly enough to completely spare the islands where tropical storm WATCHES & WARNINGS have been issued where the storm will pass Thu. night/early Fri.  Once into the Caribbean, shear at a 30+ mph magnitude should tear the low level center from the mid & upper level air centers turning Kirk more west with the shallow trade winds.

Leslie remains over the N. Atlantic & should regain tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week through the weekend but remain over open water.

Low pressure persists near the Carolina coast.  This low will turn more north then northeast & accelerate over the W. Atlantic probably not managing to become a tropical cyclone.  Most of the wind & heavy rain will be over the north & east part of the circulation which will keep most of the "significant weather" east of the Carolina's - good news for water-logged N. & S. Carolina.

There has been some "scuttle butt" that this low is what used to be Florence but upon close examination, I find the low only to be a product of a piece of upper level trough that has broken off from the former tropical cyclone while the surface circulation of Florence zoomed east/northeast.  Therefore, this is not - in my opinion - Florence & if the low were to become a tropical cyclone, it would get a new name.

CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin. Arguably shear is a bigger inhibitor right now.

E. Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin....


Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air right up against Florence:

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect now that we're near the height of the hurricane season....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:


Surface analysis of the Gulf: