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Kirk's has - as expected - regained tropical storm status . This fast moving storm should continue to strengthen into Thu. before encountering high shear over the Caribbean. The shear should protect the Lesser Antilles from a major storm as it looks right now, but the shear may not pick up quickly enough to completely spare the islands where tropical storm WATCHES & WARNINGS have been issued where the storm will pass Thu. night/early Fri. Once into the Caribbean, shear at a 30+ mph magnitude should tear the low level center from the mid & upper level air centers turning Kirk more west with the shallow trade winds.
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Leslie remains over the N. Atlantic & should regain tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week through the weekend but remain over open water.
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Low pressure persists near the Carolina coast. This low will turn more north then northeast & accelerate over the W. Atlantic probably not managing to become a tropical cyclone. Most of the wind & heavy rain will be over the north & east part of the circulation which will keep most of the "significant weather" east of the Carolina's - good news for water-logged N. & S. Carolina.
There has been some "scuttle butt" that this low is what used to be Florence but upon close examination, I find the low only to be a product of a piece of upper level trough that has broken off from the former tropical cyclone while the surface circulation of Florence zoomed east/northeast. Therefore, this is not - in my opinion - Florence & if the low were to become a tropical cyclone, it would get a new name.
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:quality(70)/weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/global/atlantic/current/atlantic.14.jpg)
CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin. Arguably shear is a bigger inhibitor right now.
:quality(70)/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg)
E. Atlantic:
:quality(70)/weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/global/capeverde/current/capeverde.14.jpg)
:quality(70)/cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/14/900x540.jpg)
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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin....
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Caribbean:
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Gulf of Mexico:
:quality(70)/weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/gulf/current/gulf.14.jpg)
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air right up against Florence:
:quality(70)/weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/global/atlantic/current/atlantic.08.jpg)
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect now that we're near the height of the hurricane season....
:quality(70)/www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif)
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif)
SE U.S. surface map:
:quality(70)/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif)
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
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Surface analysis of the Gulf:
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Caribbean:
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