Talking the Tropics With Mike: Lane weakens to a tropical storm

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I'll begin where the "action" is for the moment.... the Central Pacific & "Lane"...

Summary for Hawaii where business should be back to "normal" soon:

* Very heavy rain & the resultant flooding & landslides will be the greatest hazard for the islands. Total rainfall of 1-2+ feet will occur with parts of the Big Island's windward slopes already at 40"+

* Winds will be strong enough to drop some trees & power lines with some funneling of winds along & through mountain passes causing locally more intense winds but reasonably built structures should be o.k.

* storm surge of 3 - 5 feet, locally higher... dangerous rip currents

* isolated waterspouts & tornadoes

* not a "catastrophic" hit but flooding - in particular - will be significant to locally severe

* conditions will slowly improve Sunday into Monday though deep southerly flow will continue to bring bands of heavy showers & t'storms to the islands & rough seas & surf will only slowly decrease with south facing beaches still taking a battering.

Now.... for a reality check on Lane & how the storm is being portrayed in some circles.....

(1) "direct hit" on Hawaii - the center crossing the island chain isn't going to happen. Some of the media headlines regarding "direct hit", "bracing", "monster", "praying for Hawaii" are & were - quite frankly - over the top.

(2) "has never happened" - uh.... no. Tropical storms & hurricanes have hit Hawaii going back generations. It is true that a head on hit by a major hurricane is rare & typically requires a fairly fast moving tropical cyclone - which Lane is not. A list of Hawaii "hits" looks like this:

Aug. 9, 1871: Cat. 3 hurricane

Aug. 8, 1958: Tropical storm

Aug. 6, 1959: Cat. 1 hurricane "Dot"

Oct. 20, 1983: Tropical depression "Raymond"

Aug. 3, 1988: Tropical depression Gilma

Sept. 11, 1992: Cat. 4 hurricane "Iniki"

Sept. 14, 1992: Tropical depression "Orlene"

July 24, 1993: Tropical depression "Eugene"

Aug. 8, 2014: Tropical storm "Iselle"

July 24, 2016: Tropical storm "Darby"

(3) "put out" the Kilauea volcano OR the volcano will somehow affect the hurricane - uh... again... no! Two completely different beasts occurring for many different reasons. Volcanism is geologic, hurricane is atmospheric :)

(4) Lane is a product of climate change &/or global warming. Once again - NO! Yes - the earth is warming but Lane was & is a product of the right atmospheric & oceanic conditions coming together at the right time to produce a once powerful hurricane.

So... on with the nuts & bolts: Hurricane "Lane" reached Cat. 5 intensity Tue. night & has clearly peaked while turning northwest & northward & now more west as strong shear has its way with the once mighty tropical cyclone. The much more shallow circulation will now allow the system to turn sharply westward steered by the trade winds. For what it's worth... the GFS was much better than the European model on depicting the northward move the past several days, but the GFS was then too far east taking the center over land while the European - once the model caught on - did a better job keeping Lane south & west of the islands.

The Atlantic Basin, on the other hand, remains quiet.. A stalled front is over the far Western Atlantic with an upper low evolving east of the Carolina's & Florida. At this time, no significant surface reflection appears likely, but this is something to keep an eye on. Dry air in the mid & upper levels is widespread across much of the central basin. I expect to see some changes - with potential storm development - by the first week to 10 days or so of Sept.