Talking the Tropics With Mike: Nontropical low continues over N. Atlantic

But very active tropical Pacific

Aug. 6, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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A few tropical waves are marching west across the Atlantic as is typical this time of year but little or no development expected with these waves into the upcoming week.

A nontropical wave over the N. Atlantic is essentially stationary & will begin to move northeast in the coming days over the open Atlantic.  A transition to subtropical or tropical is possible before moving back over cooler water but this system will stay far to the east of Bermuda & any part of the east coast of the U.S.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The Atlantic Basin....

Caribbean:

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The Pacific is very active.... hurricane "Hector" continues to move slightly north of due west taking a position just south of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of the week.  A bend more toward the west by midweek should save the Islands any truly significant impacts.  Ileana is south & west of Acapulco & should stay west of the coast but will be close enough to potentially bring some tropical storm force winds + heavy rain bands & rough seas/surf through Wed./Thu.  In-between the two is tropical cyclone "John" which is expected to stay over open water south & southwest of the Baja of California.

Hector:

Ileana:

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Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin.  This pattern often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as is occurring now over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of named storm or two popping over the Atlantic by mid month.

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