Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical depression #2 strengthens into tropical storm Beryl

July 5, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

Tropical depression #2 has strengthened into tropical storm "Beryl" over the Central Atlantic. There had not been a named storm in the Atlantic Basin from May 29th through July 4th for the first time since 2009.

One of the first bona-fide African tropical waves of the season has fairly quickly become tropical depression #2 & now tropical storm "Beryl".  T.D. #2 is a small system which should make it susceptible to a good deal of dry air to its immediate north as well as - in the long term - strong shear.  The shear should "arrest" any further development upon approach to the Caribbean &, in fact, will be strong enough to even cause the tropical cyclone to likely degenerate back into a depression then open tropical wave.  That's good news for the Lesser Antilles as Beryl should be nearing the Windward Islands Sunday/Sunday night.  At this point... little more than some heavy rain squalls with gusty winds can be expected.  There will be virtually no impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. or any of Fl., for that matter.

Spaghetti plots of 'Invest 95L', now TD #2:

Elsewhere.... an interesting & well defined (see satellite images) upper level "feature" - a so-called TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough - has moved across Fl. & will scoot quickly westward over the Northern Gulf of Mexico through Fri. night.   SOMETIMES, these troughs can develop a surface wave/low pressure that can eventually lead to tropical development.  However, this disturbance will remain mainly upper level.  Scattered to numerous heavy showers & t'storms will accompany the upper low, especially to the east of upper low.

Another weak upper low will develop over or near Fl. through the weekend but again with no surface development.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Fl. Water Management District:

An upper level trough - but with a weak surface low - is over the Central Atlantic south/southwest of Bermuda.  This low could become subtropical or even tropical while moving northward over the Atlantic before merging with a cold front over the N. Atlantic late in the weekend/early next week.  Some heavy rain & gusty winds for Bermuda but otherwise no impact to any land areas as the low moves between the U.S. east coast & Bermuda.

Tropical storm Beryl over the Central Atlantic....

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear...... note how strong the shear is over & east of the Caribbean which should shred Beryl over the weekend....

0

1

July tropical cyclone genesis areas since 1851 courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University has updated his seasonal forecast & has lowered numbers now calling for a slightly below avg. season.  Much of the reasoning is based on persistent cooler than avg. water temps. over the Central & especially Eastern Atlantic Basin as well as the potential for an El Nino - see "Buresh Blog" - to emerge over the equatorial Pacific by the peek of the hurricane season. But remember you should always be prepared & don't get too caught up in the numbers as just how "bad" a season is often is measured by where, when & how strong there any landfalls.

Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific... "Fabio" is far away from any land areas... has weakened below hurricane strength & will become a remnant low rather soon while moving west/northwest.

0

1

2

Cox Media Group