Community hospitals predict May to be the peak of COVID-19 cases in Jacksonville

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Community hospitals predict Jacksonville will experience its peak in coronavirus cases in about one month, early May. Some local experts said it could start to ramp up by the end of the week.

“We’re looking up at the mountain right now, that wave is coming at us,” Dr. David Caro said. “We’re just doing everything we can to be ready for it.”

Dr. Caro is one of the leaders at UF Health in Jacksonville who is preparing each of their facilities for a surge in COVID-19 patients.

Right now, he said UF Health’s patient volume is low due to canceled elective surgeries, patient discharge, and social distancing. However, they predict more cases will start to come in by the end of the week.

“It’s allowed us to start our instant command system earlier,” he said. “We’ve got a number of folks working on various different parts of the hospital and response we’re going to have because we know we’re going to have it.”

UF Health has more than 600 licensed beds for patients between its two facilities. Dr. Caro said their emergency response team is also identifying new spaces in the hospital to potentially treat COVID-19 patients. However, he said these patients need specific type of room, equipment, health care professionals, and protective gear for treatment.

“Using all of the predictive models that’s out now and exists, we’re expecting a surge of anywhere between 200 to 400% of our usual volume,” He said. “So that’s coming and we know it’s going to start to ramp up within this week or the next is what we’re expecting.”

Local experts at UF Health have created a predictive model to estimate the peak for the coronavirus. Using this information and other models from the Westcoast, Dr. Caro said they are preparing for the worst to hit Jacksonville in Early May.

“To look at the graph, the spreadsheet, it kind of ramps up and hit a peak at about a month from now and then ramps back down,” He said. “So we’re expecting two months’ worth of higher than normal volumes and we’re expecting that really soon.”

To prepare for a surge, UF Health is conserving equipment, supplies, and making sure they would have enough staff to care for patients. Officials said the facilities have a limited supply of personal protective gear and working to get more from the State.

“We’re going to be at limited resources for a long period of time,” Dr. Caro said. “So identifying the right equipment for the right areas, try not to burn through it now, and try and make sure we’re using appropriate gear that the CDC says we can use to take care of patients like this.”

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