JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Rep. Byron Donalds holds a four-point lead over Casey DeSantis in a new poll of likely Republican primary voters for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, shows Donalds’ support increases to 47% when voters are informed of an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
The poll found 28% of respondents favor Donalds, while 24% support DeSantis. These results fall within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points. While Donalds currently leads the field, a significant 36% of voters remains undecided.
Other Republican candidates in the poll trail the frontrunners by double digits. James Fishback received 4% support, followed by Jay Collins at 3% and Paul Renner at less than 1%. The survey found that if DeSantis is removed from the ballot, the number of undecided voters increases from 36% to 51%.
Among those who would have voted for DeSantis, 64% said they do not know who they would support in her absence.
>>> STREAM ACTION NEWS JAX LIVE <<<
Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science, noted that while DeSantis is a major factor due to name recognition, she has not yet taken steps toward a campaign
“DeSantis’s entrance into the race is still possible, though she hasn’t been engaged in the fundraising we’d expect from someone interested in running,” Freeder said. He noted that her impact on voters remains substantial.
The survey also measured the impact of an endorsement from Trump. When respondents were informed of Trump’s support for Donalds, the representative’s support grew to 47%, while support for DeSantis fell to 12%.
Freeder explained that endorsements often serve as the primary cue for voters when all candidates belong to the same party. “Given Trump’s notoriety and high popularity among Republicans, an endorsement from him is likely to decide the race, especially when Donalds has the campaign funds to heavily advertise this advantage to voters,” Freeder said.
Despite the shift in polling numbers following the mention of Trump’s endorsement, respondents indicated that an endorsement from Gov. Ron DeSantis carries more weight. When asked whose endorsement for governor would matter most, 42% of respondents chose Gov. DeSantis, while 32% chose Trump. Freeder suggested this preference may be tied to the fact that Trump’s opinion is already public knowledge. “That DeSantis’s endorsement edges out Trump’s in terms of importance may be less about voters’ preference for DeSantis’s opinion and more about their curiosity about it,” Freeder said.
Prospective candidates must meet the official filing deadline on June 15. Freeder said DeSantis will remain a factor in the race at least until that date.
[DOWNLOAD: Free Action News Jax app for alerts as news breaks]
[SIGN UP: Action News Jax Daily Headlines Newsletter]
Click here to download the free Action News Jax news and weather apps, click here to download the Action News Jax Now app for your smart TV and click here to stream Action News Jax live.
