Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical cyclone (depression) develops on the first day of the ’20 Hurricane Season

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The 2020 hurricane season has been off to an early start. Tropical storm “Arthur” formed in mid May (16th) east of Florida staying offshore over the Western Atlantic. On May 27th, tropical storm “Bertha” quickly formed just off the coast of S. Carolina moving ashore near Charleston within a few hours of being upgraded. While not necessarily always true, recent history has shown tropical development in May has been followed by “active” seasons including U.S. landfalls:

Forecasts for the season ahead are indicating above average numbers:

An active season is largely predicated on above avg. sea surface temps. & the neutral ENSO conditions that may trend La Nina which is a cooling of the equatorial Pacific & often correlates to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

An large “envelope” of low pressure centered over Central America helped spawn tropical storm “Amanda” over the far E. Pacific & has now helped to develop tropical depression #3 over the far SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche. Indications are that t.d. #3 will become tropical storm “Cristobal” & move ashore over the Yucatan Peninsula or Eastern Mexico later this week (very slow mover!).

Another area of low pressure may eventually develop over the Western/Central Gulf - by the weekend - & become tropical. Early “call” is for a move north &/or NW which would translate to a “hit” on the Western Gulf.

At this point... there seems to be no threat to Fl./Jacksonville/SE Ga. There will be an increase in tropical moisture later this week/weekend for Jacksonville & surrounding areas leading to an uptick in t’storm activity & potential heavy rainfall but mostly independent of development in the Gulf.