Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical storm Gonzalo continues to strengthen while quickly moving westward

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*** At this time no direct impacts from the tropics for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through at least the weekend. Gonzalo will, however, impact the Southern & possibly Central Lesser Antilles then will move into the Caribbean... a tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico will move into Texas Friday - possibly as a depression or tropical storm... & hurricane Douglas over the E. Pacific will be near Hawaii this weekend. ***

(1) low pressure over the Central Atlantic has become tropical depression #7 & now tropical storm “Gonzalo”. This is the fastest ever to the 7th named storm over the Atlantic beating “Gert” in 2005 by two days. The avg. date of the 7th named storm is not until Sept. 16th. A steady, rather fast westward movement is expected turning a little northwest by the weekend over the Caribbean. Most global forecast models - both the European & GFS for instance - are not very strong (even dissipate it in some forecast cycles) with the tropical cyclone, especially once into the Caribbean likely because of pretty dry mid & upper level air as well as some shear. Close proximity to the S. American coast may also play a role. But neither is model is initializing the small tropical cyclone very well either.

Conditions may change some + shear looks weaker over the Western Caribbean so the long term prognosis is still up in the air, especially if Gonzalo can survive the less favorable conditions over/near the Eastern Caribbean. At least some heavy/gusty squalls can be expected for some of the Central/Southern Lesser Antilles Fri. into Saturday.

(2) a tropical wave/disturbance has moved into the Central & SE Gulf of Mexico & continues to produce a lot of disorganized convection over Cuba, Florida & the Gulf while moving northwest. There are indications of some possible organization on satellite imagery with low pressure now able to be analyzed & indicated in the surface wind fields. Continued gradual strengthening of this wave is possible this week before reaching the Texas coast about Friday. It’s not out of the question, the wave could be a depression or even a tropical storm by late week.

(3) A strong tropical wave has just come off the coast of Africa but is void of much convection & at a higher latitude than t.d. #7 but does appear to have some long term potential.

Overall.... it looks like a much more active Atlantic late this month into at least the first week of Aug. More on that further down - see “Velocity Potential Anomalies”.

Radar imagery below courtesy South Florida Water Management District:

Meanwhile... “velocity potential anomalies” map below shows why we could - & should - see more tropical activity over both the E. Pacific & Atlantic in the coming weeks. The green lines indicate “upward” vertical velocities which are shown to be in a narrow but strong corridor spreading over the Central & Eastern Pacific. This upward motion in the atmosphere often correlates with increased t’storm activity & sometimes tropical development & is right in concert with the development of tropical cyclone Douglas over the E. Pacific. I would expect to see at least a couple of named storms pop over the Atlantic Basin between now & August 10th.