Emily hits Florida - staying far to the south of Jax - July 31st

July 31, 2017 — Tropical storm "Emily" will have NO direct local impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Onshore winds out of the east are already occurring at our area beaches & may be augmented slightly by "Emily" as the tropical cyclone moves offshore about 155 miles south/southeast of Jacksonville overnight tonight near Melbourne. The onshore flow will result in a heightened rip current risk - never swim or surf alone & stay as close to a lifeguard as possible.

"Emily" moved ashore at 10:45am just south of Tampa Bay on Anna Maria Island just west of Bradenton. Wind gusts between 55 & 60 mph were measured near Tampa Bay.

- Heavy rain will be the primary concern with rainfall of 4-6"+ along & south of I-4

- winds will be a secondary threat with gusts of 40+ mph which could topple some trees especially since the ground is saturated.

- isolated waterspout/brief tornado threat

- little or no storm surge

Beware of stalling fronts during the hurricane season...

& low & behold: tropical storm "Emily" formed over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some weakening will occur over land before back over the Atlantic by early Tue. The interaction with land & dry air to the immediate north + increasing shear should not allow for much recovery once back over water & "Emily" will stay well to the south & east of Jacksonville.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District (purple line is forecast track of "Emily"):

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. A fairly strong wave has emerged off the coast of Africa & some potential for gradual development during the next week or so as the wave moves into the Central Atlantic.

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear - still very evident over the Caribbean)... note the strong shear over & near Fl. in the vicinity of "Emily":

Eastern Atlantic:

In the E. Pacific.... "Irwin" will soon dissipate & the last advisory has been issued on "Hilary" to the north over cooler water. There is some rough surf & a high rip current risk up & down the Baja Peninsula & S. California...