July 31, 2017 — Tropical storm "Emily" will have NO direct local impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Onshore winds out of the east are already occurring at our area beaches & may be augmented slightly by "Emily" as the tropical cyclone moves offshore about 155 miles south/southeast of Jacksonville overnight tonight near Melbourne. The onshore flow will result in a heightened rip current risk - never swim or surf alone & stay as close to a lifeguard as possible.
"Emily" moved ashore at 10:45am just south of Tampa Bay on Anna Maria Island just west of Bradenton. Wind gusts between 55 & 60 mph were measured near Tampa Bay.
- Heavy rain will be the primary concern with rainfall of 4-6"+ along & south of I-4
- winds will be a secondary threat with gusts of 40+ mph which could topple some trees especially since the ground is saturated.
- isolated waterspout/brief tornado threat
- little or no storm surge
Beware of stalling fronts during the hurricane season...
& low & behold: tropical storm "Emily" formed over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some weakening will occur over land before back over the Atlantic by early Tue. The interaction with land & dry air to the immediate north + increasing shear should not allow for much recovery once back over water & "Emily" will stay well to the south & east of Jacksonville.
Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District (purple line is forecast track of "Emily"):
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:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/120350_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
:quality(70)/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif)
:quality(70)/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg_scroll.gif)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/rb-l.jpg)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg)
Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. A fairly strong wave has emerged off the coast of Africa & some potential for gradual development during the next week or so as the wave moves into the Central Atlantic.
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Water vapor imagery:
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg)
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...
:quality(70)/apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif)
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Surface analysis of the Gulf:
:quality(70)/apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif)
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Caribbean:
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif)
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear - still very evident over the Caribbean)... note the strong shear over & near Fl. in the vicinity of "Emily":
Eastern Atlantic:
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg)
In the E. Pacific.... "Irwin" will soon dissipate & the last advisory has been issued on "Hilary" to the north over cooler water. There is some rough surf & a high rip current risk up & down the Baja Peninsula & S. California...
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb-l.jpg)
"Irwin":
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10E/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP10/refresh/EP102017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/090129_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
The W. Pacific...... "Noru" continues well to the southeast of Japan....
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:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
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"Noru":
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
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