"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Broad low pressure offshore of U.S. east coast - Oct. 21st

Oct. 21, 2016 — ..... A "deep dive" into hurricane "Matthew" - a total & quite personal review - click -- here -- .............

Disturbance '99L' near/east of the Bahamas.......

Wave Invest '99L' consists of a large area of low pressure with generally only weak to moderate convection east of Florida that will be near Jacksonville's latitude but 300+ miles away late Fri.  The low will be aburptly pulled north/northeast Saturday as it is "captured" by a strong upper level trough of low pressure moving to the U.S. east coast.  This interaction with the trough may be what "sparks" the low with sudden but short-lived transition to a subtropical or even tropical storm still possible.

But at that point what could become "Otto" will be soon absorbed by a much stronger midlatitude cyclone over far SE Canada/NW Atlantic.  For those that just appreciate the inner-workings of Mother Nature..... watch over the weekend how the madlatitude cyclone bombs out entraining some tropical input from the south & southeast.  Should be some interesting satellite imagery & this will turn into quite a storm for the far eastern province of Canada, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia & even Greenland.

Another area of "disturbed" weather is much farther to the southeast at about 10 degrees N & 35 degrees W. well to the east of the Caribbean.  There's some potential for development but there is not much of a chance for this disturbance to get very far west.

Spaghetti model plots for Invest '99L':

Zoomed in IR satellite of '99L':

Surface map forecast for early Saturday shows the strong cold front pushing well to the south & east exiting Florida (1st of autumn to do so) while the attendant strong low pressure system -- that will help absorb whatever comes of '99L' -- is over extreme Northeast New England.

Nothing indicated at the moment, but the Caribbean may still be an area to monitor for potential long term development....



Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico/W. Atlantic/Florida while moisture gathers over the SE Bahamas/Central Atlantic & Caribbean.   '99L' has to battle that dry air but the incoming upper level trough should help with upper level ventilation.

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis shows a lot of shear in the vicinity of '99L' - not at all uncommon this late in the hurricane season:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling from "Matthew":

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

Meanwhile..... the W. Pacific.... Typhoon "Sarika" hit the Philippines this past weekend while powerful "Haima" moved across the far Northern Philippines... will stay well southwest of Taiwan then into China -- but much weaker -- through Fri. night.



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