Talking the Tropics With Mike: Chris goes hurricane hundreds of miles NE of Jacksonville

July 10, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....


* Virtually NO impacts from "Chris" (other than some dry air on its backside by Tue./Wed.)... there is/will be a bit of an easterly swell at area beaches enhancing the rip current risk somewhat.  This swell will decrease Wed. & especially Thu./Fri. as Chris accelerates away from Jacksonville.

* the remnants of Beryl are over the Bahamas. The wave will stay well to the east of Fl. & any reorganization / intensification would be slow, if at all.  I do NOT expect Beryl to be a problem for the local area or any of the U.S.


Chris has finally started moving northeast & will be accelerating over the NW Atlantic away from the U.S. coast. after "officially" becoming a hurricane Tue.  It's only the 4th time (1966, 1968, 2005) that a hurricane has formed on or before July 10th during the weather satellite era (since mid 1960s).  An approaching upper level trough & surface cold front will help pick up Chris steering the tropical cyclone over the W./NW Atlantic with few impacts on the U.S. other than an increased rip current risk.  Chris will be close to Newfoundland by late week as the storm transitions to extratropical, a large ocean storm.

For Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.... Chris will stay far enough northeast to not have any direct significant impacts though some dry air will get funneled into the local area down the backside of the tropical cyclone... & an easterly swell will reach our local beaches.


"Beryl" & its remnants brought some flooding to Puerto Rico Mon. but is now moving away from the island.  The system is poorly organized, & I'm not so sure the wave will be able reorganize.  If so, any strengthening is probably not likely to occur until the system is north of the Bahamas perhaps at Jacksonville's latitude but hundreds of miles to the east.  The wave will then turn more northeast staying far to the east of the U.S.  There will be some heavy rain & gusty breezes through Wed. across the Bahamas.

Spaghetti plots for "Beryl".... some models dissipate the system over the Caribbean which why there are fewer lines (models) in the longer term.....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

Full Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

Remants of Beryl moving away from Hispaniola, Chris over the W. Atlantic....



Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:


Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:




Meanwhile.... the W. Pacific... typhoon (W. Hemisphere so hurricanes are referred to as typhoons) "Maria" made landfall Tue. evening (Jacksonville / ED Time). on the coast of China roughly 300 miles south of Shanghai - as a high end Cat. 1/low end Cat. 2 typhoon.  While strengthening, Maria did damage to Guam & at least 4 people have been killed.  Keep in mind that the list of seasonal names for various basins throughout the world are different & repeats every 6 years.  You might recall that "Maria" was retired from the Atlantic Basin list of names after the powerful hit last year by hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico.



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