Talking the Tropics With Mike: Chris moving little but still well NE of Jacksonville

July 9, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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* Virtually NO impacts from tropical storm "Chris" (other than some dry air on its backside by Tue./Wed.)

* the remnants of Beryl moving through the Caribbean will turn northward this week but simply as a tropical wave.  The wave will move over the Bahamas mid to late week with some chance for some regeneration but well to the east of Fl. but such a process would be slow, if at all.  I do NOT expect Beryl to be a big problem for the local area or any of the U.S.


Tropical storm Chris will meander east of the Carolina's & several hundred miles northeast of Jacksonville through Tue. while slowly organizing & intensifying.  Chris will move little or even drift west &/or southwest some before being picked up by an upper level trough mid to late week which will support a southward moving cold front.  Chris should then "attach" itself to the front & accelerate to the northeast over the Western Atlantic coming pretty close - late week - to Newfoundland & Nova Scotia.

Given the close proximity of the warm gulf stream + some help in a few days with upper level ventilation courtesy the approaching upper level trough, Chris is forecast to eventually become a hurricane & may - for a time - be somewhat uncomfortably close to the U.S. east coast but still well offshore.

For Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.... it looks like Chris stays far enough northeast to not have any direct significant impacts though some dry air may get funneled into the local area down the backside of the tropical cyclone.

Chris spaghetti model plots:

Note the frontal boundary north of Chris in satellite imagery below.  This front is stationary which will allow Chris to "sit & spin" ... waiting on the next upper level trough & surface cold front in 3-4 days....


"Beryl" has felt the serious effects of mid & upper level shear as well as dry air.  What is now essentially a "blob" of convection is moving steadily moving west/northwest & will cross Puerto Rico & parts of Hispaniola with heavy rain, localized flooding & gusty winds though the overall impacts will not be as severe as with a tropical cyclone.

There is some chance for some regeneration in a few days but such a process would likely take some time given how disrupted the circulation is.

What's left of the tropical wave - will be east of Florida by late in the week.  Any impacts looks to be minimal, especially for NE Fl./SE Ga. - since on the west side of the wave - while some heavy rain & gusty breezes affect parts of the Bahamas.

Spaghetti plots for "Beryl".... some models dissipate the system over the Caribbean which why there are fewer lines (models) in the longer term.....

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear...... note how strong the shear is over & east of the Caribbean helping to shred Beryl while Chris is tucked in an area off the U.S. coast of quite low shear....

A couple of additional strong tropical waves will be moving west off Africa though development seems unlikely at this time....

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....


Remants of Beryl over, tropical storm Chris....


Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:


Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:


Surface analysis of the Gulf:




Meanwhile.... the W. Pacific... typhoon (W. Hemisphere so hurricanes are referred to as typhoons) "Maria" became a super typhoon again but will begin a weakening trend the next several days.  The typhoon is forecast to pass south of Okinawa while staying far to the south of the main islands of Japan.... then into the coast of China roughly 300 miles south of Shanghai - as a strong tropical storm or Cat. 1 typhoon - about the middle of the week.  While strengthening, Maria did damage to Guam & at least 4 people have been killed.  Keep in mind that the list of seasonal names for various basins throughout the world are different.  You might recall that "Maria" was retired from the Atlantic Basin list of names after the powerful hit last year by hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico.