Talking the Tropics With Mike: Eye on the East Pacific

June 30, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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We'll get through the month of June without a named storm over the Atlantic Basin - something that happens about every other year.

Meanwhile... the East Pacific continues to be the place to watch.

A look at the velocity potential anomalies does show "upward motion" (green lines) - though not overly strong - over the Pacific which is likely helping the tropical development.  The upshot is that this upward motion will likely "ooze" into the Atlantic Basin for parts of July & could spark the first development of the Atlantic season (other than brief Andrea in May).  Something to keep an eye on.

A weak trough of low pressure extends across the Central Atlantic - no surface development expected.

A cluster of t'storms has been flaring up occasionally over the W. Caribbean & could be an area to watch if the storms become persistent.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:

There is a disturbance over the far Eastern Atlantic, but it's early in the season for development so deep over the tropics.

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There may be tropical development off the coast of Mexico over the E. Pacific but any system would continue to move W/NW away from land.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

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Caribbean:

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In the E. Pacific.... tropical storm Alvin briefly became a hurricane Thu. (first of the E. Pacific season) has dissipated but another disturbance is developing far to the south of the Baja of California & will be the next named storm but will move west or W/NW away from any major land areas.

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Cox Media Group