Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Lorenzo headed for the Azores then Ireland & Great Britain

Oct. 1, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. or any of the coastal U.S. anytime soon. The rip current risk is moderate to high again at area beaches along with rough seas & surf due to distant tropical cyclones &/or persistent generally onshore flow.

As we close out an active September, no new tropical cyclones are likely to develop this week. The seven named storms for Sept. will go down as the 2nd most behind the record of 8 in 2002, 2007 & 2010.

October is the 2nd to last month of the "official" hurricane season.

Hurricane Lorenzo remains the only active tropical cyclone over the Atlantic Basin. We'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico next week through the following week for the possibility of some development.

HURRICANE LORENZO:

A large/impressive tropical wave came off the coast of Africa a week ago Sunday & was deemed t.d. #13.... then upgraded to tropical storm "Lorenzo" Mon. morning & to a hurricane early Wed. become a Cat. 4 Thu. & then to a remarkable satellite estimated Cat. 5 Sat. evening - over the E. Atlantic. It's the farthest east & north that a Cat. 5 has been observed but realize satellite data of the quality we have now has not been around for very long. Impressive nonetheless & only the 7th season on record with more than one Cat. 5.

Sprawling Lorenzo - tropical storm force winds extend more than 300 miles from the center is moving north/northeast & will near the Azores Tue. night/Wed.... then to near Ireland Thu. as a strong post-tropical followed by a turn to the east - with further weakening - into or near Great Britain Fri. Wave heights of 40-50 feet are forecast to the east & southeast of Lorenzo's path!

From Dr. Phil Klotzbach - the location where each Cat. 5 developed over the Atlantic Basin (the blue dot is Lorenzo):

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones. It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While the MDR is cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the East Pacific.... Narda has formed near the west coast of Mexico dropping heavy rain on coastal areas. The storm's proximity to land should limit further development.