Talking the Tropics With Mike: Lane outer bands lashing Hawaii

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I'll begin where all the "action" is for the moment.... the Central Pacific & hurricane Lane...

Summary:

* Very heavy rain & the resultant flooding & landslides will be the greatest hazard for the islands. Total rainfall of 2 feet or more will be common with parts of the Big Island already at 20"+

* Winds will be strong enough to drop some trees & power lines with some funneling of winds along & through mountain passes causing locally more intense winds

* storm surge of 3 - 5 feet, locally higher... dangerous rip currents

* isolated waterspouts & tornadoes

* not a "catastrophic" hit but flooding - in particular - will be significant to locally severe

* conditions will improve by Sunday though deep southerly flow will continue to bring bands of heavy showers & t'storms to the islands & rough seas & surf will only slowly decrease with south facing beaches still taking a battering.

Now.... for a reality check on Lane & how the storm is being portrayed in some circles.....

(1) "direct hit" on Hawaii - the center crossing the island chain appears unlikely at this time. Some of the media headlines regarding "direct hit", "bracing", "monster", "praying for Hawaii" are & were - quite frankly - over the top.

(2) "has never happened" - uh.... no. Tropical storms & hurricanes have hit Hawaii going back generations. It is true that a head on hit by a major hurricane is rare & typically requires a fairly fast moving tropical cyclone - which Lane is not. A list of Hawaii "hits" looks like this:

Aug. 9, 1871: Cat. 3 hurricane

Aug. 8, 1958: Tropical storm

Aug. 6, 1959: Cat. 1 hurricane "Dot"

Oct. 20, 1983: Tropical depression "Raymond"

Aug. 3, 1988: Tropical depression Gilma

Sept. 11, 1992: Cat. 4 hurricane "Iniki"

Sept. 14, 1992: Tropical depression "Orlene"

July 24, 1993: Tropical depression "Eugene"

Aug. 8, 2014: Tropical storm "Iselle"

July 24, 2016: Tropical storm "Darby"

(3) "put out" the Kilauea volcano OR the volcano will somehow affect the hurricane - uh... again... no! Two completely different beasts occurring for many different reasons. Volcanism is geologic, hurricane is atmospheric :)

(4) Hurricane Lane is a product of climate change &/or global warming. Once again - NO! Yes - the earth is warming but Lane was & is a product of the right atmospheric & oceanic conditions coming together at the right time to produce a once powerful hurricane.

So... on with the nuts & bolts: Hurricane "Lane" reached Cat. 5 intensity Tue. night & has clearly peaked while turning northwest & now northward as shear out of the southwest increases & will only become stronger in the coming days. A trough of low pressure west & northwest of Hawaii combined with a ridge of high pressure to the east is helping to pull Lane more northward until the hurricane significantly weakens at which time the much more shallow circulation will turn sharply westward steered by the trade winds. Hurricane WATCHES & WARNINGS have been posted for the entire Hawaiian Island chain. Lane is expected to move well west of the big island then south of Honolulu at which point the trend should be for pretty rapid weakening while the tropical cyclone makes the turn to the west. This does not look like a direct hit (eye moving over land) on the islands, but the center will be pretty close to the central islands in particular for a time & a track to the coast is not entirely out of the question. In fact, a fairly notable move or wobble east was observed Fri. afternoon on radar imagery. For what it's worth... the GFS has been much better than the European model on depicting the northward move this week.

The image below - with Lane's forecast path superimposed - courtesy CIMMS shows the dramatic increase in shear out of the southwest in advance of Lane which should help to "decapitate" the tropical cyclone in the long run.....

The Atlantic Basin, on the other hand, remains quiet.. A stalled front is over the far Western Atlantic with an upper low evolving east of the Carolina's & Florida. At this time, no significant surface reflection appears likely, but this is something to keep an eye on. Dry air in the mid & upper levels is widespread across much of the central basin. I expect to see some changes - with potential storm development - by the first week to 10 days or so of Sept.