Talking the Tropics With Mike: Melissa weakening over NW Atlantic.... typhoon leaves Japan

Oct. 13, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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** There are no tropical threats to Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. Melissa is over the NW Atlantic & weakening while New England coastal conditions slowly improve **

..... & we'll need to watch the Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico through at least the end of the month for the possibility of attempts at tropical development.

Cat. 5 hurricane Michael devastated the Central Fl. Panhandle one year ago Oct. 10th.  Read my blog about the storm * here *.... my visit to Ground Zero * here *... a podcast of victim's memories in their own words * here *. There will be many local events through the weekend commemorating the storm.

Right now: 

Melissa transitioned to purely tropical over the weekend over the Northwest Atlantic southeast of New England is moving slowly away from New England. The storm is being picked up by a trough moving into the Northeast U.S. & taken out to sea while weakening.  Coastal New England winds & seas will slowly subside.

Melissa will have no impact on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

Generally unsettled conditions continue over the Caribbean.  Low pressure may form within the upcoming week near Central America then move into the SW or Western Gulf of Mexico where some attempts at tropical development will be possible though proximity to land might not allow such.

A strong tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa & could briefly develop over the far East Atlantic & impact the Cape Verde Islands.  This system will turn sharply north with no chance at getting across the Atlantic.

Atlantic dust (note the "doughnut" of Melissa in the midst of a large area of dry air/dust):

2019 names..... "Nestor" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Thunderstorms have been rather persistent over the SW Caribbean.  Some development is possible, but the disturbance will then move into Central America over land by early next week.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg.  A pocket of cool water temps. has expanded over the SW Atlantic including the Bahamas:

While parts of the Atlantic are cooler than avg., it's important to realize the water is still warm enough to support tropical systems....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity:

Typhoon "Hagibis" hit Japan Fri. night into Sat. with major impacts on Tokyo - local info. * here *.  The tropical cyclone is becoming post-tropical over the NW Pacific.