Talking the Tropics With Mike: Oscar bringing rough seas & surf to Bermuda, slight swell to U.S.

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"Oscar" has become a hurricane & is spinning over the Central Atlantic.  Oscar has turned northward & will then turn sharply northeast & accelerate into the N. Atlantic.... well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.  Rough seas & surf will affect Bermuda through Wed.... with a slight swell along the U.S. east coast including Jacksonville & nearby beaches.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.  Disorganized t'storms over the E. Atlantic will persist but with little surface development of consequence.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....


Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


In the West Pacific.... Typhoon Yutu - once a super typhoon while delivering a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam a few days ago - crossed the Northern Philippines Mon./Tue. & is now over the South China Sea.  Land interaction weakened the tropical cyclone but some brief restrengthening is forecast over the S. China Sea while recurving north then northeast.  Another weakening trend is expected just off the coast of China.

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