Talking the Tropics With Mike: Sebastien to strengthen some while turning NE over open Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Sebastien to strengthen some while turning NE over open Atlantic

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

However, tropical storm Sebastien continues over the Central Atlantic.  Sebastien will accelerate to the northeast while merging with a frontal system through late week.  Once merged with the cold front, transition to an extra-tropical low pressure system will occur over the open North Atlantic.  No impact on the U.S. & the system will stay well south & east of Bermuda.  Marginal atmospheric conditions - northwest shear in particular (satellite imagery shows most of the t'storm activity to the east of the low level center) - will keep the tropical storm from strengthening a great deal though there will likely be an uptick through early Thu. before shear & cooler sea surface temps. start to take a toll.

Less than two weeks are left in the Atlantic hurricane season!  Two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Tanya" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: