Aug. 4, 2017 — Two main areas of interest/concern continue:
(1) SW Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche - gradual tropical development possible through the weekend/early next week. This can be a "hot bed' this time of year & any development would primarily impact Mexico &/or Texas. This possible development would likely come from a tropical wave - 90L - currently over the Caribbean that's moving W/NW. The European model is the strongest while the GFS model holds off development longer resulting in a weaker system. The UKMET model shows little or no development.
(2) Eastern & Central Atlantic where an active tropical wave ('99-L') has a good chance to develop into a tropical cyclone. The GFS model has this wave becoming a powerful hurricane & making a beeline west/northwest underneath the strong Bermuda high over the Central/Eastern Atlantic while the European model eventually dissipates a weak tropical cyclone... the UKMET model has been somewhere inbetween. It's most likely the a faster/stronger developing system would end up farther north (poleward) while a weaker system would go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds.
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
:quality(70)/my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif)
'90L':
:quality(70)/my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_90.gif)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rTCFP_048.gif)
:quality(70)/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namsesfcwbg.gif)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/rb-l.jpg)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg)
Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic with a stream of dust far to the west into the SW Atlantic:
:quality(70)/tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg)
Water vapor imagery shows moisure returning to Florida....
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg)
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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg)
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Surface analysis of the Gulf:
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif)
Caribbean:
:quality(70)/www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif)
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear)...
The W. Pacific...... the broad eye of "Noru" will make a hit on Southern & Central Japan over the weekend perhaps as a Cat. 1 or 2 typhoon:
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/gglcontent/wpac.gif)
:quality(70)/www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07W/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif)
"Noru":
:quality(70)/www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0717.gif)
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