"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Two active waves - Aug. 4th

Aug. 4, 2017 — Two main areas of interest/concern continue:

(1) SW Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche - gradual tropical development possible through the weekend/early next week.  This can be a "hot bed' this time of year & any development would primarily impact Mexico &/or Texas.  This possible development would likely come from a tropical wave - 90L - currently over the Caribbean that's moving W/NW.  The European model is the strongest while the GFS model holds off development longer resulting in a weaker system.  The UKMET model shows little or no development.

(2) Eastern & Central Atlantic where an active tropical wave ('99-L') has a good chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.  The GFS model has this wave becoming a powerful hurricane & making a beeline west/northwest underneath the strong Bermuda high over the Central/Eastern Atlantic while the European model eventually dissipates a weak tropical cyclone... the UKMET model has been somewhere inbetween.  It's most likely the a faster/stronger developing system would end up farther north (poleward) while a weaker system would go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds.


Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic with a stream of dust far to the west into the SW Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery shows moisure returning to Florida....


Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...


Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear)...

The W. Pacific......  the broad eye of "Noru" will make a hit on Southern & Central Japan over the weekend perhaps as a Cat. 1 or 2 typhoon:


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