Polls, voter turnout favor Democrats, but Jacksonville Mayoral race still up for grabs

A new poll from St. Pete Polls shows Democrat Donna Deegan leading Republican Daniel Davis by 1.7 points in the race to be Jacksonville’s next mayor.

Democrats also have the lead in votes cast ahead of Election Day, but if history is any indicator, it’s not an insurmountable lead for Republicans to still end up with a win.

With less than 24 hours to go before polls open on Election Day, Democrats have cast 4.7 percent more votes in Duval County.

Democratic mayoral candidate Donna Deegan said while she’s not lending too much weight to the letter on voters’ registration cards, she’s feeling optimistic.

“We’re out picking up every vote we can till the very end. We’ve been talking to everybody in Jacksonville. Our idea is that we need to bring everybody together. It’s not about us versus them,” said Deegan.


Republican Daniel Davis on the other hand doesn’t see the vote deficit as one that cannot be overcome.

In 2015, the last competitive mayoral race in Jacksonville, Democrat Alvin Brown had a vote lead of 5.2 percent heading into Election Day.

After Republicans won Election Day voting by 1.8 points, Republican Lenny Curry ended up taking the mayor’s office with 51.3 percent of the vote.

“It’s gonna be a close race, but I think conservatives show up tomorrow,” said Davis.

The most recent election in 2022 showed Republicans with a 0.8 percent vote advantage heading into Election Day.

Republicans then proceeded to dominate the Election Day vote, putting up 15.1 points on Democrats.

Duval Dems Chair Daniel Henry doesn’t expect to see a repeat in this election though.

“Ultimately, I think NPA voters are going to be determinative in this election. How they vote is really going to decide how this election turns out,” said Henry.

Duval GOP Chair State Representative Dean Black also isn’t expecting a repeat of 2022, but he noted Republicans are doing everything in their power to ensure a strong showing at the polls on Election Day.

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“We need every Republican to vote. It’s going to be very, very close and I’ll tell you we have already been making plans for the possibility of a recount,” said Black.

If the margin of victory for either candidate is within half a percent, an automatic machine recount would be triggered.

If it’s less than a quarter of a percent, a manual recount would be called.

In either event, it could be days before the official winner is declared.

Watch Action News Jax at 6:00 p.m. for the full story.

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