It’s very likely we’re going to see at least one team below .500 in a bowl game.
With three weeks to go in the 2023 college football regular season, the odds of all 81 bowl spots being filled by teams with six wins seem small. Just 50 postseason-eligible teams already have six or more wins and 17 teams need a win to be bowl eligible. If each of those teams gets at least one win, that’s still just 67 teams with six or more wins.
To have a full bowl field of eligible teams, a lot of sub-.500 teams need to do some serious work over their final three games. There are 41 teams who need to win either two of their final three games or go undefeated over the final three weeks of the season. Can 14 of those teams get to six wins?
We have our doubts. And that's good news for James Madison (9-0), and Jacksonville State (7-3). They're officially ineligible for the postseason as part of their respective transitions to the top level of college football. But they will get to play in a bowl if there aren't enough six-win teams for all the bowl spots. We have them in our bowl projections and feel they're safely in the bowl field.
If more than JMU and JSU are needed to fill out the bowl field, the NCAA will look to the Academic Progress Rate of the teams that finished the season at 5-7. That’s good news for Northwestern. The Wildcats had the best APR of any team a season ago and are currently 4-6. A win over Purdue (or someone else), gets Northwestern to five wins and the likely option of going to a bowl game.
At the moment, we have Northwestern as our only 5-7 team in the postseason.
Here’s our latest look at the bowl field with the final quarter of the season to go, along with an overview of how each conference’s bowl-eligibility picture stacks up.
AAC
Bowl eligible (4): Tulane, SMU, Memphis, UTSA
Needs two wins (3): Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Rice
Needs three wins (6): Navy, UAB, Charlotte, North Texas, Tulsa, Temple
ACC
Bowl eligible (7): Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, NC State, Miami
Needs one win (2): Georgia Tech, Clemson
Needs two wins (3): Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse
Big 12
Bowl eligible (6): Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia
Needs one win (2): Iowa State, BYU
Needs two wins (4): Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, UCF
Needs three wins (1): Baylor
Big Ten
Bowl eligible (5): Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers
Needs one win (4): Maryland, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska
Needs two wins (2): Illinois, Northwestern
Needs three wins (2): Indiana, Michigan State
Conference USA
Bowl eligible (3): Liberty, Jacksonville State*, New Mexico State
Needs one win (1): Western Kentucky
Needs two wins (1): Florida International
MAC
Bowl eligible (3): Toledo, Miami (Ohio), Ohio
Needs one win (2): Central Michigan (5-5), Bowling Green
Needs two wins (3): Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois (4-6), Western Michigan (4-6)
Mountain West
Bowl eligible (4): Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming
Needs two wins (3): Boise State, San Jose State, Utah State
Needs three wins (3): New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State
Pac-12
Bowl eligible (7): Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, USC, Arizona, UCLA
Needs two wins (2): Colorado, Washington State
Needs three wins (2): Stanford, Cal
SEC
Bowl eligible (7): Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Kentucky
Needs one win (3): Texas A&M, Florida, Auburn
Needs two wins (1): Mississippi State
Needs three wins (2): South Carolina, Arkansas
Sun Belt
Bowl eligible (6): James Madison*, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Texas State
Needs one win (3): Appalachian State, Arkansas State, Louisiana
Needs two wins (3): South Alabama, Old Dominion, Marshall
New Year's Six Bowls
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29) Texas vs. Washington
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30) Penn State vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30) Louisville vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1) Tulane vs. Oregon
Rose Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1) Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl [CFP semifinal] (Jan. 1) Georgia vs. Ohio State
Other Bowls
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 16) New Mexico State vs. Eastern Michigan
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 16) Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Cure Bowl (Dec. 16) Colorado State vs. Georgia Southern
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 16) Air Force vs. Liberty
LA Bowl (Dec. 16) Fresno State vs. Arizona
Independence Bowl (Dec. 16) Iowa State vs. Washington State
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 18) Coastal Carolina vs. Western Kentucky
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 19) Navy vs. Illinois
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 21) Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia State
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22) South Florida vs. South Alabama
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 23) Wake Forest vs. Louisiana
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 23) Toledo vs. James Madison
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23) Houston vs. Northwestern
Potato Bowl (Dec. 23) Northern Illinois vs. Boise State
68 Ventures Bowl (Dec. 23) Ohio vs. Appalachian State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 23) Minnesota vs. Oregon State
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 23) SMU vs. Wyoming
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 26) Nebraska vs. Central Michigan
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26) Utah State vs. Texas State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26) West Virginia vs. Rutgers
Military Bowl (Dec. 27) NC State vs. Memphis
Duke's Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27) Duke vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27) Clemson vs. UCLA
Texas Bowl (Dec. 27) Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28) Boston College vs. UTSA
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28) Virginia Tech vs. Maryland
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28) North Carolina vs. Kansas State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28) Oklahoma State vs. USC
Gator Bowl (Dec. 29) Miami vs. Florida
Sun Bowl (Dec. 29) Georgia Tech vs. Utah
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29) Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30) Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 30) Miami (Ohio) vs. UNLV
ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 1) Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1) Iowa vs. Missouri
