Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical depression #5 strengthens into tropical storm “Edouard”

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Tropical depression #5 was upgraded to tropical storm Edouard Sun. night but will remain harmlessly over the N. Atlantic quickly moving northeast. Edouard is like to start losing its tropical characteristics late Mon. There will be no impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. or any of the U.S.

A weak upper level trough of low pressure/cut-off low will develop/evolve along & near the Gulf Coast into the upcoming week. Some kind of weak surface low pressure will eventually result anywhere from the NE Gulf to Florida to the Western Atlantic east of the Carolina’s through mid week. There’s some chance of tropical development with the low this week... perhaps just off the U.S. east coast but likely a fair distance north of Jacksonville.

There will be heavy rain at times over the next several days for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

And a rather large tropical wave - at a pretty far southern latitude - is approaching the S.E. Caribbean. The combination of increasing shear & possible interaction with the Northeast coast of S. America should limit much development.

Meanwhile... the Saharan dust (4th image below) remains dominant over a good part of the Central & E. Atlantic.

The recent dust “activity” - perhaps the most extensive in years a couple of weeks ago - as a whole is quite typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which can often times inhibit tropical development. However, I’ve seen tropical systems thrive just outside the dust cloud ... or once away from the dusty atmosphere (see 2004)... so it’s not a “shoe in” that there will be no tropical development just because a lot of dust exists (see Dolly this week & Dorian last year). Other factors have to be considered such as the overall shear values across the Atlantic Basin, general vertical motion values & sea surface temps. which are nowhere near their seasonal peak yet.

Bottom line: we have a long ways to go (5 months) yet in the hurricane season with plenty of time to see the active basin we are anticipating.