Aug. 7, 2017 — Tropical storm "Franklin" over the W. Caribbean is headed for the Yucatan Peninsula Mon. night/early Tue. Tropical storm WARNING + hurricane WATCH for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula... tropical storm WATCH for upper coastal Belize including Belize City... only four other years have had 4 tropical storms by Aug. 6th - 1936, 1959, 2005 & 2012 (according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach).
Tropical storm "Franklin" will intensify through Mon. but land interaction Mon. night/Tue. -- Yucatan Peninsula -- should weaken the system before emerging over the Bay of Campeche. Given very warm ocean temps. + a low shear environment, re-intensification is likely as long as the circulation is not too disrupted over land. The 2nd landfall looks to be Wed. night/early Thu. on the coast of Mexico well south of Texas.
There will be NO impacts for Jacksonville or any of Florida.
Meanwhile... an active tropical wave ('99-L') is struggling over the Central Atlantic. Global forecast models are now generally unanimous on this system failing to develop while turning northwest then north by the weekend a little east of Florida - as an "open" tropical wave.
A weaker system should go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds. We still need to keep a wary eye on the longer term when conditions might be more favorable for stronger development (late this week into the weekend).
Other tropical waves are now marching west from Africa as we enter the 6-8 week period when deep Cape (Cabo) Verde tropical systems become more common.
Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the E. Atlantic:
Water vapor imagery (strong nontropical upper low north of Puerto Rico):
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear):
The W. Pacific...... "Noru" is weakening over Japan after a Cat. 1 landfall Sunday. The storm will slowly move across the country through Tue.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast Friday. He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated. If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.
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