"Talking the Tropics With Mike": 11 years since U.S. major hurricane hit - Oct. 24th

Oct. 24, 2016 — The strong weekend cold front has plowed deep into the Atlantic to near Hispaniola & into the Central Caribbean.  This is easily the farthest south a cold front has penetrated this hurricane season.  Cool, very dry air follows the front, & it seems to have triggered the true switch to autumn for the hurricane season.

A large area of "disturbed" weather continues well to the east of the Caribbean over the Central & Eastern Atlantic.  There's some potential for tropical development but there is not much of a chance for movement that would get very far west.  A tropical cyclone in this "neck of the woods" late in the season rarely makes it across the Atlantic.

Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air from the Caribbean north/northeast across the Western Atlantic - looking a lot like autumn!

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis:

Gulf of Mexico:


East Atlantic:


There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew":

In the E. Pacific.... "Seymour" has developed & will soon be a hurricane but is expected to stay out over the open water with no significant impacts on any land areas though some swells will be sent to the beaches of Southern California & the Baja of California by later this week.

11 years ago this week - Oct. 24th to be precise - Cat. 3 "Wilma" hammered South Florida as the once powerful Cat. 5 hurricane moved rapidly east/northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to the W. Atlantic.  The name "Wilma" was ultimately retired & still to this day is the last "major" (Cat. 3/4 or 5) hurricane to make landfall -- see video from "Ultimate Chase" --  on U.S. soil - the longest such stretch in recorded history.  Before "Hermine" earlier this year, "Wilma" was the last hurricane of any intensity to make a direct hit on Florida which was also a record.  "Wilma" set records for the lowest central pressure ever measured in a hurricane (882mb that included a record intensification from tropical storm to Cat. 5 hurricane in little more than 24 hours) + the smallest eye (2 miles across).

NASA satellite imagery after "Wilma" has made the turn to the northeast after wrecking parts of the Yucatan Peninsula (strengthening from a Cat. 2 to 3):

The tiny eye of violent "Wilma" over the Caribbean on its way to the Yucatan:

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.  The USGS has found record high levels on the St. Johns River at least at two locations in Duval Co. after post hurricane surveys.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

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