Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic Basin is full of autumn fronts

Nov. 4, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A rather strong upper level low is producing disorganized but heavy showers & storms over the Central Atlantic which may lead to the development of low pressure. The low will be absorbed by a cold front during the next few days as the system turns north then northeast with little chance for any tropical development while staying far to the east of the U.S.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall. Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs. Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic. Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle in 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

"Maha" is over the Arabian Sea & will likely stay over the water & away from land while weakening over the next few days.... & typhoon "Halong" is an early recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan: