"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Bahamian low zipping north - Oct. 22nd

Oct. 22, 2016 — ..... A "deep dive" (as coined by Rich Jones, WOKV radio) into hurricane "Matthew" - a total & quite personal review - click -- here -- .............

"Unsettled" SE Bahamas & Central Atlantic.......

Wave Invest '99L' has run out of time & much to my surprise will not become a tropical system.  The strong upper trough is pulling the system northward w/ strong convection far to the north headed for extreme Eastern New England & areas to the north & northeast.

The disturbance/low will be absorbed by a much stronger midlatitude cyclone over far SE Canada/NW Atlantic.  For those that just appreciate the inner-workings of Mother Nature..... watch over the weekend how the madlatitude cyclone bombs out entraining some tropical input from the south & southeast.  Should be some interesting satellite imagery & this will turn into quite a storm for the far eastern province of Canada, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia & even Greenland with high winds & very heavy rain..... & on the far backside of the storm, some heavy snow.

An area of "disturbed" weather continues well to the east of the Caribbean.  There's some potential for development but there is not much of a chance for this disturbance to get very far west.  A tropical cyclone in this "neck of the woods" late in the season rarely makes across the Atlantic.

There is also some potential for development over the SW Atlantic as there is a lot of disorganized convection over the SE Bahamas into the extreme Northern Caribbean.  This is partly due to an upper level disturbance leftover from an earlier upper level trough of low pressure.  The strong cold front sweeping through Florida will tend to stall in the vicinity of the convection & low pressure could eventually evolve.  Again - most likely a movement to the east or northeast which could keep the potential "trouble spot" well to the east of Florida.

Spaghetti model plots for Invest '99L':

Surface map forecast for early Saturday shows the strong cold front pushing well to the south & east exiting Florida (1st of autumn to do so) while the attendant strong low pressure system -- that will help absorb whatever comes of '99L' -- is over extreme Northeast New England.

Nothing indicated at the moment, but the Caribbean may still be an area to monitor for potential long term development....


Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico/W. Atlantic/Florida & even into the NW Caribbean - looking a lot like autumn!


The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis:

Gulf of Mexico:

East Atlantic:

There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew":

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.  The USGS has found record high levels on the St. Johns River at least at two locations in Duval Co. after post hurricane surveys.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

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