"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Cold front plows into the Caribbean - Oct. 23rd

Oct. 23, 2016 — A strong cold front has plowed deep into the Atlantic to near Hispaniola & into the Central Caribbean.  This is easily the farthest south a cold front has penetrated this hurricane season.  Cool, very dry air follows the front, & it seems to have triggered the true switch to autumn for the hurricane season.

A large area of "disturbed" weather continues well to the east of the Caribbean over the Central & Eastern Atlantic.  There's some potential for development but there is not much of a chance for this disturbance to get very far west.  A tropical cyclone in this "neck of the woods" late in the season rarely makes it across the Atlantic

Nothing indicated at the moment, but the Caribbean may still be an area to monitor for potential long term development.  The stalled frontal boundary might prove to be a catalyst.

Water vapor imagery..... a lot of dry air over the Gulf of Mexico/W. Atlantic/Florida & even into the NW Caribbean - looking a lot like autumn!

The wind shear (red lines represent strongest shear) analysis:

Gulf of Mexico:


East Atlantic:


There is still a lot of warm water remains to help "feed" tropical cyclones.  Water temps. of 28 degrees Celsius equate to 82 degrees Fahrenheit.  Tropical cyclones generally need at least 80 degree water to thrive.

Sea surface temps. vs. average.  Note the pretty strong recent cooling along the immediate coast of Central/Northeast Fl. north to the Tidewater - probably due to some upwelling following "Matthew":

Cleanup continues from Virginia to Florida following one of the more destructive hurricanes to impact the U.S. in many years & what will most likely be the most destructive hurricane to affect Northeast & East Central Florida since at least the late 1970s & possibly 1964.  "Matthew's" only U.S. landfall  -- but third overall -- was a hit 0n the upper S. Carolina coast not far from Myrtle Beach Sat. morning/Oct. 8th (previous landfalls were Haiti & Cuba).  The land interaction deteriorated the core enough so that no redevelopment occurred once back over water thus ending any threat for a loop.  A new coastal inlet in extreme Southern St. Johns Co. was confirmed by the Jax N.W.S.  My own personal summary, account & experiences can be found in the "Buresh Blog".   You can find pics & reports on my Twitter account + Facebook fan page.  The USGS has found record high levels on the St. Johns River at least at two locations in Duval Co. after post hurricane surveys.

The Jax N.W.S. has posted a preliminary synopsis -- including top wind gusts & rainfall & county by county breakout of the some of the more hard hit areas of Duval, St. Johns, Nassau, Putnam & Clay Co.

Comments on this article