Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disorganized wave over the Eastern Caribbean

July 29, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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A tropical wave has moved into the Eastern Caribbean & is moving slowly northwest. While convection has been active at times, there is little organization largely due to strong shear. The wave will move toward Florida through the end of the week with the shear + some land interaction likely inhibiting much in the way of development. Some forecast models have shown some attempts at organization east of Florida while the wave turns north then is kicked northeast by another upper level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. BOTTOM LINE: it would appear the wave will not have favorable conditions for much strengthening prior to being in the vicinity of Fl. late week into the upcoming weekend. Any local / Florida impacts would be an even greater increase in heavy rain in what is a typically wet time of year.

A pretty active wave has come off the coast of Africa over the E. Atlantic. Little short term development is expected but something to keep an eye on in the longer run.

2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

A pulse of "vertical velocities" (green lines) has spread east from the Pacific into the Atlantic but is quickly weakening. This correlates with rising air which can be favorable for tropical development IF all other things are equal. That being said... there is quite a bit of shear over the Atlantic Basin at the moment. But this pulse might help trigger attempts at tropical development over the Atlantic over the next week or two.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

The East Pacific is again active. "Erick" will be south of Hawaii by late week & likely quickly weakening after being at hurricane strength over the next few days. "Flossie" follows & could be near Hawaii in 7 - 10 days or so.