Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance hundreds of miles northeast of Jacksonville, Fl.

Sept. 25, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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(1) Subtropical storm Leslie is over the N. Atlantic & will soon become a large ocean storm.  Leslie could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics later this week or weekend.

(2) Low pressure is about 700-800 miles E/NE of Jacksonville.  This low will move northwest moving to near the Carolina's by Wed. before turning rather sharply north then northeast & accelerating over the W. Atlantic.  It's possible this low becomes a tropical depression or even a tropical storm.  Indications are that most of the heavy rain & wind will be over the north & east part of the circulation which would keep most of the "significant weather" east of Florida.... & most of the Carolina's - good news for water-logged N. & S. Carolina.

There has been some "scuttle butt" that this low is what used to be Florence but upon close examination, I find the low only to be a product of a piece of upper level trough that has broken off from the former tropical cyclone while the surface circulation of Florence zoomed east/northeast.  Therefore, this is not - in my opinion - Florence & if the low were to become a tropical cyclone, it would get a new name. In any case.... the low is imbedded within a sea of dry air so has struggled to produce persistent convection.  Extra ventilation aloft by midweek thanks to an upper level trough moving into the NE U.S. may aid this low in strengthening / organizing some but still does not appear to be strong system once near the Carolina's.

(4) Kirk's remnants continue to move steadily westward .  This fast moving disturbance opened up into a wave / trough of low pressure Mon. but could try to reorganize before encountering high shear over the Caribbean.  The shear should protect the Lesser Antilles from a major storm as it looks right now.  What's left of Kirk should be near or over the Lesser Antilles by Friday followed by a continued westward move - either as a weak tropical cyclone or open trough / wave  - deeper into the Caribbean.

CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin. Arguably shear is a bigger inhibitor right now.

E. Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin....


Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air right up against Florence:

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect now that we're near the height of the hurricane season....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:


Surface analysis of the Gulf: