Talking the Tropics With Mike: Gulf depression becomes t.s. Olga... Pablo develops NE Atlantic

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** Tropical depression #17 has strengthened into tropical storm "Olga" over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Landfall will be Fri. night/early Sat. near/west of New Orleans.  No direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. but heavy rain, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes will occur from the Fl. Panhandle to New Orleans & Central Louisiana through late Saturday **

The tropical wave & an area of low pressure with persistent showers & t'storms is moving N/NE over the Western Gulf of Mexico & was upgraded to t.d. #17 Fri. morning then tropical storm Olga late Fri. afternoon.  The cyclone looks a bit subtropical on satellite with primary threats being flooding & a few tornadoes along the Central Gulf Coast. Olga will move ashore near & west of New Orleans by later Fri. night/ earlySat. morning. Olga will become extra- or post-tropical (hybrid low pressure) near or upon landfall as the cyclone "hooks up" with a cold front.

Expect heavy rain through the weekend from the Texas coast eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama & the Fl. Panhandle with no direct impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.

Rainfall forecast:

Meanwhile.... a large low is over the NE Atlantic has been deemed a tropical storm - Pablo - by the NHC.  Pablo will stay over the open NE Atlantic to the east of the Azore Islands.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Rebekah" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity....  "Bualoi" is recurving east of Japan while weakening.

Cox Media Group