Talking the Tropics With Mike: Intense typhoon NW Pacific but Atlantic quiet

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Intense typhoon NW Pacific but Atlantic quiet

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

There's some "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean.  Proximity to land should limit much development.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity:

"Maha" is over the Arabian Sea & will likely stay over the water while weakening over the next few days.... & powerful typhoon "Halong" is an early recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan & will be of no threat to land:

"Nakri" will move west toward China maintaining tropical storm strength: