Nov. 6, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **
There's some "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean. Proximity to land should limit much development.
Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall. Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs. Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.
Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic. Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.
Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.
2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity:
"Maha" is over the Arabian Sea & will likely stay over the water while weakening over the next few days.... & powerful typhoon "Halong" is an early recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan & will be of no threat to land:
"Nakri" will move west toward China maintaining tropical storm strength:
Cox Media Group