Talking the Tropics With Mike: Karen finally dissipates.... large Lorenzo over Central/E. Atlantic

Sept. 28, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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Lorenzo is certainly no problem for the U.S. while Karen has finally lost the battle to shear. Model plots below show a nice tight cluster with Lorenzo & still even show a path for Karen which will be only remnants.

KAREN:

Karen was upgraded early Sunday over the Eastern Caribbean & has been battling shear since its inception & finally lost that battle late Friday. What's left of Karen will gradually turn westward but no redevelopment is expected as shear will remain strong along with a good deal of nearby dry air.

On satellite imagery, Karen's circulation center is no longer evident. The trough of low pressure that's left behind will move west with little impact other than a refreshing breeze & some showers to the east of the wave's passage over the Central & SW Atlantic.

HURRICANE LORENZO:

A large/impressive tropical wave came off the coast of Africa Sunday & was deemed t.d. #13.... then upgraded to tropical storm "Lorenzo" Mon. morning & to a hurricane early Wed. become a Cat. 4 Thu. - over the E. Atlantic. Sprawling Lorenzo - tropical storm force winds extend more than 250 miles from the center - will be an early turn to the north staying over the Eastern & Central Atlantic & has likely peaked in intensity. Lorenzo will gradually weaken over the next few days before a faster weakening trend over cooler water next week over the Northeast Atlantic & the storm moves near & just to the west of the Azores.

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season. Much too much is made of the dust & tropical cyclones. It's not all uncommon for tropical waves to simply "wait out" the dry air & dust organizing once the wave is clear of the dry atmosphere.

2019 names..... "Melissa" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. Note the leftover upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian near the Bahamas (though starting to "mix out"):