Talking the Tropics With Mike: Subtropical storm Oscar forms thousands of miles from Jacksonville

Oct. 27, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Atlantic Basin: NON-tropical low pressure - the first nor'easter of the season - is moving north/northeast off the coast of New England producing gusty wind & heavy rain right along the coast.

Low pressure has become subtropical storm "Oscar".  The low will move some semblance of west initially then turn sharply northward before accelerating northeast into the N. Atlantic.... well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....


Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


In the West Pacific.... super typhoon Yutu will move slowly west avoiding - for the moment - highly populated areas but Yutu was a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam. By midweek the typhoon will near the Northern Philippines.

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