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Leslie continues to crawl over the Central Atlantic. The storm's swell will affect the Florida coastline & much of the U.S. east coast through the weekend & - when combined with onshore flow - result in a high rip current risk at area beaches. Otherwise Leslie will stay far away from any land areas as the tropical cyclone turns sharply eastward.
Clusters & bands of strong convection persist over the Caribbean. Broad low pressure has developed, but the t'storms lack organization & there is a good deal of mid & upper level shear at the moment. Tropical development over/near the Gulf &/or Caribbean appears probable next week but the end result is still - as one would expect at this early juncture - far from certain. Long range global forecast models have at times "lost" this system. I would expect models to become more consistent in developing this potential tropical cyclone in the coming days. There is a lot of low pressure over a wide area from the Caribbean through the Gulf which may cause a delay in the "bundling" - or organization - of a single area of low pressure. In any case.... tropical moisture will begin to surge northward next week & will likely result in an increase in rainfall for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.
Spaghetti plots for the potential disturbance below (not a lot of tracks because not all forecast models are onboard for development):
The overall pattern through the first 2+ weeks of Oct. will favor tropical development over the Atlantic Basin. The velocity potential anomaly map below indicates expansive green lines - upward motion - spreading from the E. Pacific into the Atlantic Basin, part of a MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse. While tropical development could occur just about anywhere, it would appear we especially need to be vigilant of the Caribbean &/or Southwest Atlantic from approximately Oct. 8 through the 16th.
Note the secondary peak of the hurricane season in mid Oct.:
CIMMS satellite below shows the extent of dry air but also indicates it doesn't necessarily shut down the basin. Note the considerable dry air between Leslie & Florida which will help to shut down widespread rainfall for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through Friday/Saturday.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin.... note the disturbance/tropical wave over the far E. Atlantic....
Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air) - notice the dry air spinning into Leslie:
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect early in the fall....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
The E. Pacific remains active....
"Sergio" is a strong hurricane well offshore of Mexico, far to the south/southwest of the Baja & will turn northwest over open water through late week then veer back to the west. Eventually the tropical cyclone - or its remnants - may affect parts of Mexico, the Baja & Southwest U.S. next week when a deep upper level trough sets up shop over the Western U.S.
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