"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Tropical disturbance in Caribbean - Aug. 6th

Aug. 6, 2017 — The Atlantic Basin seems destined for at least one new named tropical cyclone during the upcoming week... possibly two......

(1) The Western Caribbean & SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche - a strong tropical wave - '90L' continues to roll west with persistent convection.   There's a chance the wave could be a tropical depression or storm as early as Mon. upon approach to Belize & nearby areas.  Land interaction would then disrupt the system before emerging over the Bay of Campeche where several forecast models show explosive development over what is often a "hot bed" for tropical development this time of year.

As for the modeling... The European model continues to be the strongest taking a hurricane into Mexico well south of Brownsville, Texas ... developing the storm as early as upon approach to Central America....the GFS model holds off development a little longer longer but develops a hurricane in about the same area affecting Mexico midweek well south of Texas.  The UKMET model still shows little or no development keeping the low pressure farther south & therefore more over the land mass of Mexico & Central America.

This system will stay far to the southwest & west of Florida so no impacts locally or on any of Florida.

(2) Eastern & Central Atlantic where an active tropical wave ('99-L') has a chance to still develop into a tropical cyclone but is showing no signs of organization for the moment.  The GFS model has trended weaker taking little more than an open wave to just east of Florida by next weekend. The European model has suddenly become the stronger model (a flip-flop from most of the last several days)... developing a tropical cylone east of the Bahamas in about 10 days... the UKMET model is generally somewhere inbetween & has a weak tropical disturbance approaching the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico by the end of the week.

It's most likely the a faster/stronger developing system would end up farther north (poleward) while a weaker system would go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds.  For the moment.... I favor a weaker system that ends up farther west - at least initially.  The problem could be in the longer term when conditions could be more favorable for stronger development (next weekend, following week - ish).

Other tropical waves are now marching west from Africa as we enter the 6-8 week period when deep Cape (Cabo) Verde tropical systems become more common.

SE U.S.:

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) breaking up a little but beginning to amass itself again off the NW coast of Africa:


Water vapor imagery shows moisure returning to Florida....


Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear). '90L' is moving into an area of lower shear near Central America/SW Gulf of Mexico....

The W. Pacific......  "Noru" is hitting Japan as a Cat. 1 typhoon & will weaken to a tropical storm by Monday as the storm dumps heavy rain throughout Japan (could be cause for concern on wave '99L' now in the E. Atlantic using possible teleconnection):


Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University updated his seasonal forecast Friday.  He increased the total storm number by 1 with an active season still anticipated.  If the forecast is accurate, we are in for an awfully active 2-3 months.