Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical wave moving westward toward Central America

Oct. 15, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

The last "Michael" advisory was issued by the NHC Friday, Oct. 12th - 2 days after the Panhandle landfall.

As I wrote nearly a month ago.... the overall pattern through the first 2+ weeks of Oct. has favored tropical development over the Atlantic Basin.  The velocity potential anomaly map below helped track a MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse. This phase has peaked, & the Atlantic Basin is now quieter but realize the hurricane season continues through Nov. 30th.

Meanwhile... Long-lived Leslie rolled into Spain & Portugal as a Cat. 1 hurricane transitioning to a powerful post-tropical ocean storm Sat.  The last advisory was issued by the NHC Sat., Oct. 13th.

AND....  tropical storm "Nadine" dissipated Fri., Oct. 12th.

The Atlantic Basin is indeed quieter & NO tropical systems will impact the U.S. anytime soon.  An area of "disturbed" weather over the Caribbean could develop weak low pressure while moving west over Central America with little time for significant development though a depression is possible before reaching land Tue.

And a poorly organized tropical wave is located at a rather far south latitude east of S. America.  Some development of this wave is possible in the short term but mid & upper level shear should keep this wave "in check" in the long run.

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in the fall....


Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf: