Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical waves between the Bahamas & Africa

Sept. 9, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

The chart below is at 500 mb (~30,000 feet) from last week & shows that ever so critical Bermuda high - its positioning & strength + the weak trough over New England. This set-up helped guide hurricane Dorian. Hurricanes follow the path of least resistance, & this ridge will prove to be crucial again in the coming weeks regarding tropical waves & the path of any tropical cyclones that might develop.

Phil Klotzbach - September landfalling hurricanes:

We are at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season this week.....

The Atlantic Basin remains pretty active. Gabrielle is over the East Atlantic but will be steered north over the open N. Atlantic & is no threat to land.

An active tropical wave over the East Atlantic has long term potential with the big question mark .... as of right now .... being whether or not the wave develops early on & then turns more northward fairly early on or remains rather weak which would allow the trade winds to steer a more shallow disturbance more west. The latter appears most likely. Plenty of time to watch/monitor/track & "cipher". Most of the more reliable global forecast models - European/GFS/UKMET show a tropical cyclone anywhere from near Puerto Rico to east of the Bahamas by the middle of next week - about Sept. 18 plus or minus a couple of days. Still very early on this potential development.

A wave farther to the west - a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico - will be moving west/northwest through the upcoming weekend but does not appear to be in a favorable area for much development. Still... the wave should bring an increase in showers & t'storms over the weekend to Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. before proceeding into the Gulf of Mexico.

In the overall bigger picture.... the global forecast models show a general lowering of pressures across the subtropics through mid to late Sept. which often correlates to tropical development. No surprise at the peak of the hurricane season.

Forecast models continue to send mixed messages/signals regarding '94-L' - mainly on whether or not the wave can survive generally hostile conditions over the next week or so. Still early so plenty of time to watch & track.

Gabrielle:

An examination of dust over the Atlantic shows generally less dust over the basin vs. past months which is fairly typical for September & the peak of the hurricane season.

2019 names..... "Humberto" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show a warm Gulf of Mexico, Central & Northwest Atlantic while the "Main Development Region" (MDR) remain cooler than avg. Note the upwelling (cooler water) left behind Dorian over the Bahamas & east of Florida: