Talking the Tropics With Mike: Upper low nearing Fl. Wed.... Updated CSU seasonal forecast

July 3, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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An early season (May) storm - "Alberto" is in the books so "Beryl" will be the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.  There has not been a named storm in the Atlantic Basin from May 29th through July 2nd which has not happened since 2009.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University has updated his seasonal forecast & has lowered numbers now calling for a slightly below avg. season.  Much of the reasoning is based on persistent cooler than avg. water temps. over the Central & Atlantic Basin as well as the potential for an El Nino to emerge over the equatorial Pacific by the peek of the hurricane season. But remember you should always be prepared & don't get too caught up in the numbers as just how "bad" a season is often is measured by where, when & how strong there any landfalls.

At the moment across the Atlantic....

A weak surface trough & upper level low is moving west along the Central Gulf Coast headed through Louisiana & then into Texas.  No surface development is expected but heavy rain will occur from the Western Fl. Panhandle west to Texas.

An interesting & well defined (see satellite images) upper level "feature" - a so-called TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough - is over the Western Atlantic slightly south of due east of Jacksonville. This upper level disturbance will move to near Florida  - just south of Jacksonville - by late Wed. then over the Gulf of Mexico by late week.   SOMETIMES, these troughs can develop a surface wave/low pressure that can eventually lead to tropical development.  However,  indications are that this disturbance will remain mainly upper level.  As such... the upshot is an uptick in heavy rain potential once on the eastern side of the upper trough (best upper level diffluence or spreading out of winds which enhances convective updrafts) mid to late week.

Another upper level trough is over the Central Atlantic.  This system could spawn a surface low by the weekend that will eventually turn northward over the Atlantic.

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

July tropical cyclone genesis areas since 1851 courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach:

0

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

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Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific... "Fabio" is strengthening & has become a hurricane but will stay far away from any land areas. It's the earliest 6th named storm in the E. Pacific by two days but will be weakening quickly by late week into the weekend.

Cox Media Group