Tropical storm Emily forms near Tampa - no impact on Jacksonville - July 31st

July 31, 2017 — Tropical storm "Emily" will have NO local impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.  The tropical storm will move ashore near Tampa Bay Mon. afternoon & exit near Cape Canaveral early Tue.

- Heavy rain will be the primary concern with rainfall of 4-6"+ along & south of I-4

- winds will be a secondary threat with gusts of 40+ mph which could topple some trees especially since the ground is saturated.

- isolated waterspout/brief tornado threat

- little or no storm surge

Beware of stalling fronts during the hurricane season...

& low & behold: tropical storm "Emily" has formed over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Low pressure is expected to develop along the front over the far Eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday.  With such a short time over water, no further significant development is expected.  Interaction with land & dry air to the immediate north + increasing shear should not allow for much, if any recovery once over the W. Atlantic Tue.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District (purple line is forecast track of "Emily"):

Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the African Saharan dust (orange & red) over the Central & Eastern Atlantic.  A fairly strong wave has emerged off the coast of Africa & some potential for gradual development during the next week or so as the wave moves into the Central Atlantic.

Water vapor imagery:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic...


Surface analysis of the Gulf:



Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear - still very evident over the Caribbean)... note the strong shear over & near Fl. in the vicinity of "Emily":

Eastern Atlantic:

In the E. Pacific.... "Irwin" will soon dissipate & the last advisory has been issued on "Hilary" to the north over cooler water.  There is some rough surf & a high rip current risk up & down the Baja Peninsula & S. California...


The W. Pacific......  "Noru" continues well to the southeast of Japan....