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Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
Central Atlantic... A tropical wave, “96-L,” continues to move northwest in the Central Atlantic. A turn more toward the north is expected tonight. Showers and storms continue to be a bit displaced to the east of the “center” of the area of low pressure. This is due to some westerly wind shear blowing the storms to the east. There is also just a bit of dry air on the west side of 96-L. The low pressure is likely to at least try to become a tropical depression or storm over the next day or so as it will be in a “favorable” environment for development. We don’t have to worry about this one. It will remain out to sea. The next name on the hurricane season list is “Emily.”
Northwestern Atlantic... An upper trough of low pressure that was over our area on Friday (the TUTT low), has emerged off the U.S. coastline. A surface area of low pressure has now formed. However, it appears to be in the process of merging with a frontal system. This should prevent the low from acquiring tropical characteristics.
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
July tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Global tropical activity:
“Doksuri” is near the extreme Northern Philippines & will make a China landfall by late week:
Cox Media Group