Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Busy Atlantic Basin

By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax
By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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** Despite multiple areas to track, there will be no direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. from any tropical systems through the holiday weekend **

TROPICS:

(1) an area of low pressure north/northeast of Jacksonville was upgraded to tropical depression #15 Mon. afternoon & tropical storm Omar Tue. afternoon. Omar never could overcome persistent strong shear & the last advisory by the NHC was finally issued late Sat. As has been the case much of this season, this is the fastest to ’O’, the 15th storm beating “Ophelia” on Sept. 7, 2005.

(2) There are back to back strong tropical waves over the E. Atlantic & near the coast of Africa. Each will move slowly westward slowly into next week with the potential for gradual development. The Bermuda High over the Atlantic is still strong but has shifted northward slowing the movement west of tropical waves. It’s looking like we will probably have at least two named storms next week moving slowly west or W/NW over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. It does appear some of the modeling is having difficulty discerning between individual tropical waves which will eventually get sorted out when/if the waves truly develop.

(3) A long track tropical wave will be over the Western Atlantic several hundred miles due east of Jacksonville by Tue. moving W/NW. While void of much shower or t’storm activity at the moment, some slight development is possible - perhaps even a tropical depression - but there’s no indication - thanks to increasing shear to the west - this will become a significant storm while moving northeast of Jacksonville Wed. & into the Carolina’s shortly thereafter.

(4) Also of interest is a buckle (dip) in the jet stream over the middle of the U.S. next week. This trough alone might help to serve up some tropical trouble somewhere relatively close to the U.S. though there’s nothing to lock onto right now. Some hints perhaps of low pressure trying to develop over the Western Gulf by next weekend or shortly thereafter.

September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Paulette” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list. Interesting side note: none of the remaining names on the ’20 list have ever been used....

East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive for the first couple weeks of Aug.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity. It’s interesting to see two typhoons over the far W. Pacific. MIGHT be a hint regarding the movement of future Western Atlantic tropical activity.

“Maysak” moved into South Korea Wed. as a high end Cat. 2 & has since become post-tropical while becoming absorbed with a strong nontropical low. Maysak was responsible for the sinking of a livestock cargo ship.

Now weakening “Haishen” will affect far Western Japan through Sun. night followed by S. Korea by Mon.:

Cox Media Group