Talking the Tropics With Mike: Convection over the Central Atlantic along stalled front

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Convection over the Central Atlantic along stalled front

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

There's some "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean.  Proximity to land should limit much development.  A couple of tropical waves are located between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development.  And strong convection is over the Central Atlantic in association with an old stalled frontal boundary.  Low pressure may evolve but is not likely to become tropical.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

Typhoon "Halong" is an early recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan & will be of no threat to land:

"Nakri" will move west toward China while weakening upon approach to the coast: