Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Willa weakening after landfall... super typhoon W. Pacific

Eye on developing low pressure Central Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Willa weakening after landfall... super typhoon W. Pacific

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

The East Pacific: Once Cat. 5 hurricane "Willa" made landfall about 9pm EDT on the West Central Coast of Mexico with estimated 120 mph winds - Cat. 3 - over a relatively sparsely populated area.  Willa went through an eyewall replacement cycle late Mon. causing the typical restructuring/weakening of a powerful hurricane.

Willa's low level circulation will quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico while the upper level reflection accelerates east/northeast courtesy a deepening upper level trough over the Central U.S.  There will be NO impacts from Willa on the U.S., but the leftover upper level disturbance will become part of a large upper level trough evolving over the Eastern U.S. + some of the tropical moisture from Willa will become entrained within the mid latitude trough.  BUT the low pressure that becomes a strong nor'easter on the U.S. east coast is not at all the same low pressure area that was hurricane Willa.

Willa forecast track:

Rainfall forecast shows heavy but not particularly excessive rain through the end of the week for the Gulf Coast:

Otherwise.... across the Atlantic Basin:  Low pressure is developing near the NW Gulf Coast south of Texas & will work northeast near or across Fl. & up the east coast &/or the far Western Atlantic through the weekend but will be nontropical in nature.

Low pressure will be developing over the Central Atlantic & could take on tropical characteristics.  The low will move west initially then turn northward next week well to the east of the U.S.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

A front has stalled near south Fl. & move back & forth (north & south) this week as upper level disturbances move west to east.  Surface low pressure will evolve later in the week over the Northern Gulf, the low looks to be nontropical in nature.

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

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In the West Pacific.... super typhoon Yutu has quickly intensified & will move slowly west/northwest avoiding - for the moment - highly populated areas but Yutu will be a big hit on the Northern Marianas Islands north & northeast of Guam.

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