Talking the Tropics With Mike: Oscar becoming extra-tropical while accelerating northeast

Oct. 31, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

"Oscar" is transitioning to a powerful extra-tropical ocean storm - low pressure area - over the N. Atlantic while accelerating northeast over the open Atlantic.  Rough seas & surf will affect Bermuda through Wed. night... with a slight but subsiding swell along the U.S. east coast including Jacksonville & nearby beaches.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.  Disorganized t'storms over the E. Atlantic will persist but with little surface development of consequence.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

0

Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas....

1

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the West Pacific.... Typhoon Yutu - once a super typhoon while delivering a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam last week - crossed the Northern Philippines Mon./Tue. & is now over the South China Sea.  Land interaction weakened the tropical cyclone but some brief restrengthening is occurring within a very large circulation envelope over the S. China Sea while turning north.  Another weakening trend is expected later in the week as Yutu approaches the coast of China.

Cox Media Group