Talking the Tropics With Mike: Oscar becoming extra-tropical while accelerating northeast

Oct. 31, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

"Oscar" is transitioning to a powerful extra-tropical ocean storm - low pressure area - over the N. Atlantic while accelerating northeast over the open Atlantic.  Rough seas & surf will affect Bermuda through Wed. night... with a slight but subsiding swell along the U.S. east coast including Jacksonville & nearby beaches.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.  Disorganized t'storms over the E. Atlantic will persist but with little surface development of consequence.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the Caribbean & nearby areas....


Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


In the West Pacific.... Typhoon Yutu - once a super typhoon while delivering a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam last week - crossed the Northern Philippines Mon./Tue. & is now over the South China Sea.  Land interaction weakened the tropical cyclone but some brief restrengthening is occurring within a very large circulation envelope over the S. China Sea while turning north.  Another weakening trend is expected later in the week as Yutu approaches the coast of China.