Talking the Tropics With Mike: Oscar expected to go hurricane over the Central Atlantic

Oscar stays away from land

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Oscar expected to go hurricane over the Central Atlantic

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

Subtropical storm "Oscar" is spinning & strengthening over the Central Atlantic.  Oscar will move slowly west then turn sharply northward before accelerating midweek northeast into the N. Atlantic.... well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

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Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

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Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the West Pacific.... Typhoon Yutu - a super typhoon while delivering a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam a few days ago - is moving slowly west & weakening. By midweek the typhoon will cross the Northern Philippines then into the South China Sea as with winds approximately between 80 & 100 mph.