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Subtropical storm "Oscar" is spinning & strengthening over the Central Atlantic. Oscar will move slowly west then turn sharply northward before accelerating midweek northeast into the N. Atlantic.... well to the east of the U.S..... & southeast & east of Bermuda.
The rest of the Atlantic Basin is - & will remain - quiet.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
In the West Pacific.... Typhoon Yutu - a super typhoon while delivering a big hit on the U.S. territories - Northern Marianas Islands well north & northeast of Guam a few days ago - is moving slowly west & weakening. By midweek the typhoon will cross the Northern Philippines then into the South China Sea as with winds approximately between 80 & 100 mph.
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