Talking the Tropics With Mike:Tropical depression #17 forms over the W. Gulf- noJacksonville impacts

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** Tropical depression #17 is over the Western/NW Gulf Fri. & could become tropical storm "Olga". Landfall will be Fri. night/early Sat. near/west of New Orleans. No direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. but heavy rain, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes will occur from the Fl. Panhandle to New Orleans & Central Louisiana through late Saturday **

The tropical wave & an area of low pressure with persistent showers & t'storms is moving N/NE over the Western Gulf of Mexico & has been upgraded to t.d. #17. The cyclone looks a bit subtropical on satellite - & will be visited by hurricane hunter aircraft Fri. afternoon. This low will move ashore near & west of New Orleans by later Fri. night/ earlySat. morning. The system will remain rather weak but could become a low end tropical storm (Olga) before feeling the effects of shear & before becoming more extra- or post-tropical (hybrid low pressure) near or upon landfall.

Expect at least heavy rain through the weekend from the Texas coast eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama & the Fl. Panhandle.

Rainfall forecast:

Meanwhile.... a large nontropical low is over the NE Atlantic & could take on tropical or subtropical characteristics while staying over the NE Atlantic.....

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Olga" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

Nontropical low pressure will developing over the open North Atlantic through next week well to the north & east of Bermuda. There is some chance for transition to a tropical or subtropical low in the long range (7+ days).

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment: